Scottish referendum too close to call.

Gordon Brown’s intervention on behalf of the unionists in recent days has aimed at luring Labour’s core supporters back towards the no camp, amid a sense that they had begun to drift away, particularly in the west of Scotland. The party will be relieved that Glasgow remains – just – inclined to vote no, by 51% to 49%, but broader west and central Scotland are leaning narrowly towards yes.

Only 29% of those who stuck loyally to Labour in Alex Salmond’s landslide year of 2011 say they will vote for separation, a somewhat lower proportion than that which has been found in some of the internet polls. But look instead at the much larger proportion of Scots who voted for Brown in 2010, a respectable year for the party north of the border, and crumbling of the broader Labour family becomes apparent. Forty-two percent of these voters are now signalling that they will vote for Scottish divorce from the UK. By contrast, the SNP vote is more solidly behind yes: 91% of those who voted for Salmond in 2011 intend to follow his lead again, and vote yes.

Friday’s poll also interrogates what is motivating supporters of the two camps – asking respondents to choose the two or three issues that incline them to vote as they intend. Among no supporters, feelings towards the UK are the single most important factor – named by 53%, followed by 37% who suggest that continuation of the union would be better for Scottish pensions and public services. Economic fears of separation, the principal focus of Better Together campaign over most of the course of the year, rank as less important, nominated by just 33% of nos.

On the yes side, the single most important factor are feelings about Westminster’s politics, which is named by 51%, while 40% express the hopes that independence would deliver a more prosperous future. Despite a recent emphasis on the risks of English-inspired NHS privatisation, among yes supporters feelings about public services and pensions are less important – identified as especially important in determining their decision by just 24%.

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